champagne anarchist | armchair activist

The political effects of financial crises

In a fascinating study, Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick and Christoph Trebesch analysed the social and political aftermath of 103 financial crises. During the five years following a financial crisis, the following pattern can be expected:

  • The vote share of far right parties increases by 30%. For far left parties, such an effect was not found. «After a crisis, voters seem to be particularly attracted to the political rhetoric of the extreme right, which often attributes blame to minorities or foreigners».
  • The fragmentation of politics increases and the vote share of coalition parties diminishes.
  • There is more frequent government instability and a higher probability of executive turnover.
  • The average number of anti-government protests almost triples; the number of violent riots doubles (but this effect is lacking in the post-WW2 period) and general strikes increase by at least one-third.

Sounds familiar. Interestingly, the researchers have also looked into long-term effects:

The graphs demonstrate that the political effects are temporary and diminish over time. 10 years after the crisis, almost all variables are back to their pre-crisis levels. The top panel shows that the increase in far-right votes is no longer significantly different from zero after year 8.

The authors ascribe the rise of the Dutch Party for Freedom (5.9% in 2006, 15.5% in 2010) to the crisis of 2008, so the historical pattern suggests their popularity will diminish by 2016.

Or does it? The graph the authors refer to helps to clarify this matter. There’s no evidence that the popularity of far right parties diminishes in the longer term. What they’re describing is that the confidence interval (the grey area) widens. So much so that you can’t really predict on the basis of the available data what will happen after eight years.

Another matter is the interpretation of the effects. Funke e.a. consider the political instability following financial crises a «political disaster»:

These developments likely hinder crisis resolution and contribute to political gridlock. The resulting policy uncertainty may contribute to the much debated slow economic recoveries from financial crises.

They seem to imply that governments tend to take appropriate measures and that therefore, having a strong government is good for economic recovery. That’s debatable. People like Paul Krugman and Ewald Engelen argue that the austerity policies of especially European governments have a negative impact on economic recovery.

This is relevant, for previous research found that the same social upheaval Funke a.o. associate with financial crises can also be explained as an effect of austerity policies. This raises the question how causality works here: are social (and political) unrest caused by financial crises, or by the way in which governments respond to these crises? Perhaps the stubborn austerity policies of the European and Dutch governments have contributed to the continuing popularity of the Party for Freedom?

Funke a.o. describe their research here; Statewatch has put the original article (pdf) online (I discovered the study via an article by Krugman). The earlier study on austerity and protests was done by Jacopo Ponticelli and Hans-Joachim Voth (I wrote a post on it a couple years ago).

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Collecting data on millions of Facebook users to analyse their psychological traits

The Guardian has revealed how British academics have collected information about millions of Facebook users and used the data to score them on openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness and neuroticism. The academics were paid by funders of the campaign of US presidential candidate Ted «Carpet Bomb» Cruz.

The fact that information from public Facebook profiles can be used to create psychological profiles is intriguing but not really new. Researchers have claimed they can assess someone’s personality reasonably well by analysing what they like on Facebook or by analysing personal information, activities and preferences, language features and internal Facebook statistics.

What was new to me (but apparently not to everyone) is how the academics connected to the Cruz campaign went about collecting people’s Facebook data. They used Amazon’s Mechanical Turk platform to recruit people to fill out a questionnaire that would give the researchers access to that person’s Facebook profile. Not only would they download data about the participants themselves, but also about their Facebook friends - even though those friends were unaware of this and hadn’t given permission. Participants were paid about $1 each for access to their Facebook network.

According to the Guardian, Facebook users had on average 340 friends in 2014. Of course, there’s considerable overlap between people’s networks so it can be assumed that the average participant would yield far less than 340 new profiles. Even so, this would seem to be a pretty efficient - if sneaky - way to collect data on Facebook users.

The Guardian doesn’t discuss whether this method would still work today, but I doubt it would. Out of concern for the privacy of its users (sure!) Facebook has cut off access to users’ friends’ data when it updated it’s API earlier this year.

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Interactive charts - are Dygraphs or Plotly alternatives for D3?

There are quite a few Javascript libraries that you can use to create interactive graphs (with the added bonus that your graphs look crisp: somehow my PNG images always end up looking blurry). Some of these libraries are based on D3.js and are intended to make coding with D3 easier:

The sheer number of D3 based charting tools gives a good indication of how much people love the D3’s functionality, and yet actually hate coding with D3 directly.

Personally, I don’t hate coding with D3. Still, because I only use it sporadically, I’m constantly figuring out how things worked again (unsurprisingly, this involves a lot of code recycling and a lot of googling). So I wouldn’t be averse to an easier alternative for creating basic line graphs that don’t really require the advanced capabilities of D3.

The other day, I posted an article on how newspapers use the word illegal, which included two rather dense spaghetti graphs (I’m using the term in the non-technical sense of the word). I added dropdowns to link labels to lines. Labour relations scholar Maarten Hermans suggested I take a look at Dygraphs instead. A few days later, I read at Flowing Data that the Plotly.js library is being open sourced. So let’s give them a try (note that I haven’t checked how they do on mobile devices).

Dygraphs

As far as I can tell, Dygraphs can only create line graphs. Below is a Dygraphs version of one of the spaghetti graphs from my article on the word illegal.

I have no problem with their somewhat dull colour scheme, although I’d probably change that. Note that you can click-and-drag to zoom in on a part of the chart and double-click to zoom out again.

This chart type isn’t really suitable for a graph with this many lines: when you hover your mouse over the graph, the labels obscure much of the graph. You could move the labels outside the graph area, but then you’d have to reserve quite a bit of space to accomodate them.

So I also did a version of a simpler graph, from an article in which I traced the use of the word machine for bicycle.

In this chart I made some modifications (line colour, position of the labels). I found that making these changes is relatively straightforward and well-documented. I’m not entirely happy yet with how the labels look, but other than that I think the graph looks pretty much OK.

Plotly

Same approach with Plotly: here’s a version of the spaghetti graph from the article on the word illegal:

Plotly has similar click-and-drag / double-click functionality to zoom in and out as Dygraphs (it works slightly different in that you can also zoom in vertically). I think the way they show the labels to the right of the chart is OK. If you click them, the line associated with the label disappears and reappears, so you can easily find the line associated with a label. It would be even better if clicking a label would make the associated line toggle between grey and coloured.

I’m not happy with what happens when you hover your mouse over the graph. You get a menu to the top that offers functionality that strikes me as superfluous. And the labels that pop up are obviously a mess with a spaghetti graph like this one.

So here’s a Plotly version of the simpler bicycle graph:

That’s better, although I still haven’t figured out how to get the title to left-align (CSS doesn’t seem to work and here they only explain how to set font-family and size). More importantly, I still think there’s too much stuff popping up when you hover your mouse over the graph.

Discussion

I can see myself using Dygraphs on occasion if I need a simple line graph. As for Plotly, I don’t like all the clutter in their charts and while I’m sure you can get rid of that, I’m afraid that would defeat the purpose of making it easier to create graphs.

Come to think of it, it seems that quite a few data visualisation libraries, and I’m not just thinking of Plotly here, haven’t really outgrown the «look at all the neat tricks I can do» phase. Until they move in the direction of Edward Tufte’s more minimalistic approach to data visualisation, I think I’ll rather keep struggling with D3.

Immigrants, filesharing and wiretaps: How newspapers use the word illegal

People should mind their language: an apparently neutral term like immigration has gotten xenophobic overtones as a result of its frequent use in combination with illegal, James Gingel argued in the Guardian. As an illustration, he pointed out that illegal, when typed into a Google search box, will likely get autocompleted to illegal immigrant or illegal immigration.

Earlier, the Guardian had been criticised for using the term illegal immigrant, among other things because it’s dehumanising. David Marsh of the Guardian Style Guide agreed. (The Style Guide itself takes a rather technical position on the matter: «… there is no such thing as an illegal asylum seeker … An asylum seeker can become an illegal immigrant only if he or she remains in Britain after having failed to respond to a removal notice.»)

Personally, I’d be in favour of reappropriating the term illegal immigrant - but it’s not for me to tell other people what strategy to use.

So how does the Guardian use the word illegal? I counted the words that follow the word illegal in their articles. I ignored stop words and in most cases I used stemming to lump together words like download, downloads, and downloading (see Method below).

The chart shows that the term illegal is most often used in combination with immigrant and variants. Other than that, it appears that illegal filesharing is a 2009 thing and that illegal phone [hacking] was an issue in 2011. Unsurprisingly, the expression illegal war started being used in 2003. By the way, what’s the status of that trial?

There’s also a bit of a peak in mentions of illegal thing in 2000. This can be attributed to a series of interviews in which one of the standard questions was «What was the last illegal thing you did?» The answers are somewhat boring, with the exception of «Shot a man in Reno just to watch him die» (a reference to Johnny Cash, of course).

The Guardian’s search API is largely limited to articles that appeared after 1998. For a longer term perspective, let’s turn to the New York Times, which offers access to the lead paragraphs of articles dating back to it’s origin in 1851.

That’s weird: expressions with the term illegal seem to have been rare until the 1970s. Either that, or I made an error in my analysis of the NYT data. I checked their own Chronicle tool, which confirms that the term illegal wasn’t used very much before the 1970s.

Again, the term illegal is mainly used in combination with aliens (1980s) and immigrants (2000s), but such uses seem to have dropped in the 2010s. My guess would be that this has to do with the growing importance of the «Latino vote», which means that politicians can no longer evoke negative images of immigrants without risking electoral consequences.

Speaking of vote: the expression illegal vote is one of the rare uses of the term illegal in the early days of the New York Times. Illegal voting appears to have been a recurrent concern in 19th century New York, as illustrated by a report from 1888:

Notwithstanding the widespread reports to the contrary and the wholesale issue of warrants for the arrest of illegal voters yesterday’s election in King’s County passed off without unusual excitement.

Tracking the use of the expression illegal strike provides an interesting insight into American social history: wildcat teachers’ strikes in the 1960s, broader public sector strikes in the 1970s and Reagan’s brutal standoff with air traffic controllers in the 1980s. Despite the progressive reputation it enjoys today, the New York Times often sided with law and order, for example in this 1962 report:

It was not a day New York City could be proud of. Half of the city’s 40,000 public school teachers had chosen an outlaw course and stayed away from their classrooms in an illegal strike. (If you’re wondering why public sector workers resorted to illegal strikes, read this article.)

The 1970s saw a modest peak in the use of the expression illegal wiretaps, often in connection with Watergate. In an article from 1974, the question was raised «whether President Nixon may have knowingly used claims of national security to cloak illegal wiretaps and other illegal surveillance». How modern.

So here’s my preliminary, non-scientific conclusion: newspapers appear to use the term illegal mainly to talk about immigrants, but when those in power really mess up, their actions will occasionally be called illegal too.

Method

I used the search APIs of the Guardian and the New York Times to search for articles with the search term illegal. I counted the words following the term illegal, using the Python nltk library to exclude English stop words and to reduce words to their stem. A practical matter is that stemming will reduce both immigrant and immigration to immigr. Since some of the arguments against using the expression illegal immigrant do not apply to illegal immigration, it makes sense to differentiate between immigration and immigrant. Therefore, I separately counted occurances of the expression illegal immigrant[s]. Here’s the code.

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Strava has new maps, created by Mapbox

strava-with-route-vancouver

Strava has new maps. They look good and they are well-designed. Highways, which dominate normal maps, have gotten a modest grey colour. Paths and pedestrian areas are highlighted in yellow. Parks and water bodies serve as orientation marks.

They have removed clutter so you can easily follow the road pattern. And they’ve taken care to make elevation patterns visible (too bad most hills in the Netherlands are too low to qualify for such markings).

The maps have been created by Mapbox, an alternative for Google Maps. Some of the material they use is from Open Street Maps and they contribute to Leaflet, an open source Javascript library for creating online maps. When Strava initially switched from Google Maps to Mapbox last summer, they apparently got some complaints about the disappearance of Streetview. Good thing they decided to stick with Mapbox and further improve the maps.

Hopefully the new Strava maps will become available open source for use with Leaflet. Or for your Garmin.

Via @hapee.

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